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「宏观」降息预期修正引发行情反复—伦敦金、G7汇率策略半月谈(2019年第五期)

时间:2019-07-14
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Zhang Junyi Xingye Research Analyst

Shao Xiang Xingye Research Analyst

Zhang Meng Xingye Research Analyst

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Strategy recommendation

London Gold: June non-agricultural data triggered an expected price cut in the market. It is expected that the short-term adjustment of the gold price is still not over. For three months, the fundamentals and the Fed’s policy orientation are uncertain and need to wait and see. The logic of continuing to see more gold for six months and longer has not changed.

Sterling: The Bank of England's partial pigeons will put pressure on the pound in a month. Three months later, it coincided with the crucial period of Brexit. The pound faced large fluctuations and the risk was high. In the past six months, the economic uncertainty after the Brexit fell, and the pound has a large appreciation space.

JPY: In the short-term, the Fed’s interest rate cuts are expected to be sufficient during the year, and the US bond yields are hard to exceed expectations. The yen’s appreciation is limited. In the medium term, the Fed’s entry into the interest rate cut cycle and the expansion of Japan’s output gap support inflation are all favorable for the yen’s appreciation.

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